Spring Break in the Capital City
This week, the Missouri State Legislature recessed for spring break and will resume March 14 until its adjournment in mid-May. The following is an update on a few issues I have written on during the past few months: Proposition A, Childcare, Crime, and Education. There are many other significant issues facing lawmakers when they return: the fate of Amendment 3 and abortion in Missouri, proposals to make it easier to raise utility rates, changes to the initiative petition process, the state budget itself, and several tax measures such as eliminating the state income tax. I expect to cover some or all of these in the coming weeks.
But first, something that affects all of us.
Chaotic. That’s the word most used in financial media to describe the on-again-off-again approach of the Trump administration’s tariff wars, which began with Canada, Mexico, and China but will soon extend to most other countries as well. A strong economy requires a stable, reliable regulatory and trade environment. But that’s not what we have now in this country, as businesses, industries, and consumers are whip-lashed by rapidly changing tariff policies, causing uncertainty and unpredictability in US and foreign markets.
Tariffs of 25% on goods traded with Canada and Mexico were first announced in early February but then quickly suspended for 30 days. Both countries account for over a quarter of U.S. imports and nearly a third of U.S. exports. The tariffs eventually went into effect on March 4, along with a reduced tariff of 10% on Canadian oil imports. Canada retaliated on the same day with a 25% tariff on billions of dollars of US farm exports and other goods. Then, just two days later, the Trump Administration exempted goods that met specific “rules of origin” requirements under trade agreements negotiated during Trump’s first term, specifically to avoid disruptions to the US automotive industry.
China was hit with a 10% tariff on its exports to the US in February, which doubled to 20% a month later. China retaliated with higher duties on a wide range of US farm exports and tighter export controls on US companies operating there.
On March 12, a 25% worldwide tariff was imposed on imports of steel and aluminum products, which again was met with retaliatory measures from both Canada and the European Union.
Coming in April, there will be potential tariffs on all agricultural products imported to the US, foreign-made automobiles, and reciprocal tariffs on products from all countries to match what those countries charge US exporters.
These chaotic measures have sent stock markets tumbling, with the S&P 500 falling last week into “corrective territory” for the first time since 2023. This prompted President Trump to remark that he didn’t care what the markets did, claiming that, in the long term, the current chaos would make the US stronger.
But it doesn’t appear that consumers are buying it. The University of Michigan’s most recent consumer confidence index dropped to a new two-year low in a report released Friday. It concluded that consumers now anticipate prices rising annually at a 3.9% inflation rate for the next 5-10 years.
The White House's "policy uncertainty has tanked consumer sentiment to its lowest level since inflation peaked more than two years ago, sent the stock market into correction territory, and led forecasters to materially raise recession probabilities," commented Daniel Hornung, former deputy director of the National Economic Council. American business investment and economic security have been compromised. Over the past two months, Americans have watched their retirement funds for their future security decline while their buying power has continued to erode.
Resources:
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-trade-war-timeline-20-date-guide
https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html
https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-rates-tariffs-1c8e59d6f2661c6e3c6aeda8ab07a583
Proposition A – Minimum Wage and Sick Pay Benefits
In November 2024, 57% of Missouri voters approved a ballot measure mandating an increase in the state’s minimum wage to $15 by 2026, with adjustments to the hourly rate to reflect inflation for subsequent years. It also requires employers to provide an hour of paid sick leave for every 30 hours an employee works. A group of influential business organizations, including the Missouri Chamber of Commerce, filed suit with the Missouri Supreme Court to overturn the election results, and Republican lawmakers in the legislature vowed to stop or amend its provisions from going into effect.
This past week, the Supreme Court heard arguments in the case. Opponents of Prop A argued that the language that appeared to voters on their ballot did not accurately convey to readers what the measure was about and its estimated cost, violating the “single subject rule” in Missouri statutes by including both minimum wage and sick pay provisions. The Secretary of State’s office approved the ballot language and argued that the wage and sick pay components were part of an overall “employee compensation” measure that voters were asked to approve. Further, they claimed that the opponents could not demonstrate that had the language included more specificity, the results of the election would have been any different.
Proponents, primarily Jobs for Justice, said, "This attempt to overturn the election is a slap in the face to Missourians.” The opponents had every opportunity to raise their concerns about deficiencies in the ballot language before the election but failed to do so.
Just a day after the Supreme Court proceeding, the Missouri House of Representatives voted to repeal, in its entirety, the sick leave provision and to eliminate any minimum wage increases past 2026. Republicans argued that the measure, as passed by the voters, threatened the stability of both large and small businesses in Missouri. Local Representative Dave Griffith voted for the repeal and restrictions on minimum wage increases, but Representative Rudy Veit was absent and did not vote. The bill now goes to the Senate for consideration.
Contact your MO State Senator to demand they uphold the people's will.
MO State Senator Mike Bernskoetter 573-751-2076
If you live outside of Jefferson City, find your elected officials here:
https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials
Resources:
https://house.mo.gov/Bill.aspx?bill=HB567&year=2025&code=R
State Takeover of the St. Louis Police Department
Newly elected Governor Mike Kehoe made addressing crime in the state’s largest cities one of his key policy objectives for the 2025 legislative session. The state legislature this week approved a key component of Kehoe’s policy—the state takeover of the St. Louis Police Department. Once Kehoe signs the bill, the State of Missouri will have the unique distinction of having the only two cities in the nation whose local police departments are under state control.
Democrat Rep. Marlon Anderson, from St. Louis, was quoted saying: “The two largest cities in this state with the most African American population are going under state control,” “Do I think that’s a coincidence? No, I don’t. I see the agenda, and it’s written on the wall.”
Democrats achieved several changes to the legislation from its original version. Those included removing the role of the police union in choosing state police board members, mandating a minimum number of police officers on the force (the board will decide), and the percentage of the city’s budget that would be required to fund the police department (among others). They also successfully eliminated a provision in the bill that would have expanded the definition of “rioting”, giving police broader powers to arrest and prosecute persons who engage in peaceful protest.
Republicans had argued that population decline, rising crime rates, and declining police morale necessitated the takeover since Missouri voters approved local control of the St. Louis police in 2012. Before that time, a state board had been in control since just before the Civil War. A pro-Confederate Governor had engineered the takeover of the local police in an attempt to gain control of the Union arsenal but also to assert control over the Black and German populations, which were generally pro-Union.
But St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones, as well as Police Chief Robert Tracy, testified before lawmakers that the efforts they had put in place to address the root causes of crime, improve 911 response times, and training and recruitment programs for officers had resulted in a historic decrease in crime in the city. She emphasized that the bill was not a “crime plan” but a “disrespectful, pathetic, and cowardly” attempt to take away the will of the voters.
Indeed, the original sponsor of the bill, Republican Rep. Crist, admitted in a House hearing that state control would not reduce crime in the city in and of itself but would “remove politics” from the police governance. In this case, it meant removing local control of the police from mostly Democrat officials, elected by the residents of St. Louis, and replacing it with oversight from a Republican governor, elected statewide by a Republican majority.
Given Missouri’s deplorable national rankings in in so many areas, like healthcare, education, gun violence, reproductive rights, economic opportunity, and other areas, perhaps the legislature should focus its attention on other reasons why people leave this state or choose not to move here.
Rep. Dave Griffith voted for the bill; Rep. Rudy Veit was absent. Senator Mike Bernskoetter voted in favor.
Resources:
Missouri has long been amid a childcare crisis, with three-fourths of its 115 counties deemed to be in a “childcare desert” or an area with inadequate childcare facilities. Recently, the News Tribune reported on an analysis by Kids Win Missouri and the Missouri Parents as Teachers Association that revealed a 57% coverage gap for Cole County infants and toddlers with no available childcare options – affecting 585 children. Parents of these children who are fortunate to find available providers must spend as much as 20% of their income on childcare. Parents of children ages 4-5 face a 20% coverage gap and must pay 14% of their income if they can find care.
Rep. Brenda Shields has sponsored legislation for three years that will provide incentives to businesses that offer childcare benefits to employees, tax credits to those who donate money to childcare providers, and several tax incentives to childcare providers themselves. Her bills had been blocked in the Missouri Senate due to Republican in-fighting over the past two years. Once again, the Missouri House has passed the legislation, which will now be taken up by the Senate. The bill has bipartisan support among lawmakers and is another of Governor Kehoe’s legislative priorities. Local Representatives Dave Griffith and Rudy Veit both voted in favor.
Another issue plaguing the state’s childcare problems has been the inability of the state to process subsidies available to low-income families to help pay for childcare. During 2024, the state faced excessive delays in processing applications and paying childcare providers due to failures by its new software vendor (whose owner is a major contributor to Governor Kehoe). The delays, some as long as six months, forced some childcare providers to go out of business and helped exacerbate the ongoing childcare crisis in the state.
In January, Education Commissioner Karla Esslinger claimed that the payment backlog was 70% clear and that all providers would be paid by February. I’m happy to report that according to its “Backlog Status Report,” the backlog has finally been cleared. Kehoe has pledged to ensure timely payments to providers going forward.
Contact your MO State Senator to urge support of the childcare tax credits to address MO’s childcare crisis.
MO State Senator Mike Bernskoetter 573-751-2076
If you live outside of Jefferson City, find your elected officials here:
https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials
Resources:
https://www.newstribune.com/news/2025/mar/12/our-opinion-now-is-time-to-act-on-child-care/
https://dese.mo.gov/media/pdf/child-care-subsidy-backlog-status-report
The Future of Public Education In Missouri
The Jefferson City School Board was presented last week with a preliminary budget for the next fiscal year, which reflected a “cautious approach” to state funding. Under the state’s adequacy target and foundation formula, which sets state funding for local school districts, JCPS was set to receive an additional $3-4 million for the coming year. Yet Governor Mike Kehoe has proposed a budget that would short-change the district, amounting to only a $600,000 increase. JCPS’s CFO said that would result in about $2.2 million in deficit spending for the next year. The state budget is still under consideration in the legislature, but it’s already affecting the planning process of local school systems.
The Missouri House voted this week to pass an “open enrollment” bill that allows students to transfer to neighboring school districts. Another form of “school choice” proposals, most education and school board associations oppose open enrollment without significant protections, as it could impose undue costs on school districts, such as having to pay for transporting students to other schools. Rep. Dave Griffith voted for the bill; Rep. Rudy Veit was absent.
The House also approved a bill that would reduce the valuation of tangible personal property by five and one-ninth percent each year over the next three years. For example, vehicles currently assessed at 33.3% would drop to 18%. That could result in a dramatic drop in property tax revenues not only for local school districts but other local entities like emergency responders. Again, the Missouri state legislature has decided that it knows what’s best for local communities, whether they be rural counties or small towns, or large population centers.
Rep. Dave Griffith voted for the bill; Rep. Rudy Veit was absent.
Both bills go on to the Senate for deliberation.
Contact your MO State Senator to weigh in on these two education bills.
MO State Senator Mike Bernskoetter 573-751-2076
If you live outside of Jefferson City, find your elected officials here:
https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials
Resources:
https://www.newstribune.com/news/2025/mar/14/jc-school-board-budget-taking-cautious-approach/
You failed to mention the fact the Ashcroft wrote the language and it was approved. These men have done this on purpose. That way they can try to make it go away even after we The People Voted for it. It happens every time. The whole bunch of politicians in Jefferson City needs to be held accountable.